Have you ever calculated the probability of your success in terms of a percentage? The likelihood that you’ll actually be able to do the move the way you are doing it?

If you throw yourself at a move over and over, but only stick it 1 in 10 tries, are you okay with those odds? Some climbers are satisfied if they can stick a move 1 in 5 tries. For others, maybe they’re happy with every other attempt. You’re just a coin flip away from success! I don’t know about you guys, but I was taught in school that 50% was failing. You okay with failure? Okay … maybe that’s a bit harsh.

Low-percentage moves are like the stock market in that it comes down to your personal risk tolerance.

Personally, I like guarantees. Any move under a 90% success rate is up for debate. (I actually chose this number arbitrarily, but it makes sense. If I can only do a move 9 out of 10 tries, I am still dissatisfied … because I am still falling.) Hell, I’ll audit a move if I can stick it 100% of the time but feel uncomfortable every time I do it. I’ll audit a move just for looking at me the wrong way.

I will work a section and refine my beta until I get my odds as close to 100% as possible. You must be relentless and methodical in your approach, constantly finding better ways of doing the moves you struggle with.

As mentioned in other posts, it’s frustrating to fall on the same move all the time and it can lead to burnout. By deliberately increasing your success ratio, you will stay motivated on your project, see progress, complete projects faster, repeat success, and do it all with style.

If you want your project humming like a finely tuned engine, you’ve got to strip your beta down and slowly put it back together.

Identifying low-percentage moves is fairly easy. They’re probably in the crux or a tricky section. You have two options here to increase your odds: either you get stronger, or you make your project easier somehow. If you need to, go back to posts like With a Little Help, Beta, and Beat it into Submission.

If you really want to analyze your movement, start looking at how much energy you expend on moves. A good way to identify sections you should revise is to run the route when you are just pumped out of your mind, when even the easy moves start to feel hard. This will help reveal the low-percentage moves hiding in the cracks.

Stop tolerating “okay” or “good enough” and starting asking yourself what you can do to increase your chances of success.